Hi there,
What’s the Story?
Hope you’re doing well this week. Between keynotes and the avalanche of book edits, I managed to carve out some time for one of the most mind-expanding interviews I’ve had in a long time. I spoke with Alex Edmans, a finance professor at London Business School and the author of May Contain Lies, a book I highly recommend if you want to improve your decision-making, think more clearly, or simply avoid being taken for a ride by statistics, soundbites, or slick storytellers.
The interview aligned perfectly with my own work on Inner Propaganda. Alex broke down the biases and missteps that sneak into our thinking every day. You can listen to the Changing Minds podcast interview here.
In this week’s newsletter, I’m sharing the core ideas I took from our conversation. Let’s dive in.
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Why We Believe Nonsense
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes 40 seconds
Most of us assume that if we had better data, clearer studies, or more time, we’d make better decisions. But according to Alex Edmans, author of May Contain Lies, it’s not the lack of data that’s the problem. It’s how we use it.
The Two Big Biases
Instead of trying to tackle all 200+ documented biases, Edmans zooms in on just two. Why? Because these two account for the lion’s share of real-world distortion:
1. Confirmation Bias – We accept what supports our beliefs and reject what contradicts them.
2. Black-and-White Thinking – We oversimplify complex realities into binary extremes: good/bad, true/false, always/never.
Together, these two turn even the smartest thinkers into believers of absolute rubbish.
But it gets more interesting.
Edmans dissects confirmation bias into three distinct types:
Biased Search: You only look for info that confirms your view (e.g., left vs. right-wing media).
Naïve Acceptance: You blindly accept what supports your position without questioning it.
Blinkered Skepticism: You aggressively scrutinize anything that challenges your view.
It’s not just that we’re biased. It’s that we use our intelligence to become better at being biased. And it’s not just a philosophical problem. As Edmans points out, blinkered skepticism caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster. When tests revealed the BP oil rig might be unsafe, execs invented a made-up explanation, the “bladder effect”, to dismiss the results. The made-up idea was that the flexible drill pipe bladder inside the well was supposedly expanding and contracting like a balloon, causing false pressure readings.
That’s what happens when confirmation bias meets organizational pressure and certainty addiction.
Three Antidotes to Black-And-White Thinking
Black-and-white thinking isn’t just a leadership flaw. You will see it everywhere. It’s one of the biggest problems we have in the world today.
Edmans outlines three strategies I loved:
1. Moderation: Almost nothing is always good or always bad. Even drinking water is deadly in excess. Ask: “What is a more moderate view of this?”
2. Granularity: Zoom in. Not all carbs are the same. Not all cholesterol is bad. Generic categories = generic thinking. Ask: “What specifically are we talking about here?”
3. Marbling: Some things are both good and bad. Like fossil fuel companies investing in clean energy. Think complexity, not clarity. Ask: “What are both sides to this?”
These aren’t just abstract tools. You can use them to analyze your own thinking. If you’re labeling something or someone as always wrong or always right, ask: “What am I not seeing?”
The Ladder of Misinference
One of the most powerful tools Alex shared was a five-step mental model he calls the ladder of misinference. This really helps to make your thinking much more accurate.
1. Statement ≠ Fact: “Just because it’s a quote doesn’t mean it’s true”, Albert Einstein.
2. Fact ≠ Data: Just because it’s true doesn’t mean it is representative of a conclusion you are pointing at.
3. Data ≠ Evidence: Just because there’s a correlation doesn’t mean there’s causation.
4. Evidence ≠ Proof: What’s true in one context may not apply elsewhere.
The danger is that we keep climbing this ladder until a loose opinion turns into an ironclad belief.
This is the foundation of Inner Propaganda: the way we convince ourselves of half-truths because they feel true, fit in with who we are, and make sense to us. And Edmans makes this very clear when he talks about identity.
If your belief is part of your identity, your politics, your job, your team, your mission, it becomes harder to challenge it. Truth becomes secondary to belonging. The tribe takes priority over the truth.
Get Your Ideas Challenged
Alex explained how, even as an academic, he actively sought out the agent who was most critical of his book draft. Not the one who loved it. The one who tore it apart. Because he wanted to be better. Not right. Better.
That’s the mindset more leaders need. It’s not about having the perfect strategy. It’s about being willing to be wrong, so you can eventually get it right.
So much of what we believe and think and say may contain lies. It’s imperative that we understand this so we can make smarter, better decisions and think clearly as a result.
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The Brain Prompt
What’s a belief you’ve held for a long time that feels true?
What evidence disproves it?
What is a more complicated yet true explanation?
What’s a more accurate conclusion you can articulate?
For more content on beliefs, influence, and psychology, subscribe to Inner Propaganda.
Cheers,
Owen.
P.S. You can find the fascinating interview with Alex Edmans on the Changing Minds Podcast here.
