Hi there,
What’s the Story?
This week we dive into the world of why we make stupid decisions. I cover this on the podcast and below in this week’s newsletter. I had a nice break in Europe for the last few days and have a hectic schedule for the next few weeks until the holidays! You can check out the podcast here: video.owenfitzpatrick.com.
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The Art of Stupid Decisions: Why We Make Them and How to Stop
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes 45 seconds
Have you ever looked back on a decision and wondered, what was I even thinking? It’s a familiar feeling, one we all experience. But here’s the twist—those moments aren’t just lapses in judgment or random mistakes. More often than not, they’re the result of something deeply embedded in our wiring: cognitive biases.
These invisible forces shape how we perceive, interpret, and respond to the world, often without us even realizing it. They’re shortcuts our brains take to save time and effort, but they can lead us astray in surprising ways.
In this article, we’ll explore some of the most common cognitive biases that impact our decision-making and, more importantly, how to avoid falling victim to them. By understanding how your mind works, you can make smarter, more intentional decisions.
Let’s dive in.
1. The Empathy Gap: Ignoring Our Future Feelings
Imagine planning to stick to a strict diet, convinced you’ll resist temptation. But then a stressful day comes along, and suddenly, that chocolate cake feels like a necessity. That’s the empathy gap in action.
Psychologist George Loewenstein coined this term to describe our inability to predict how our future emotions will affect our decisions. When we’re calm and rational, we underestimate how stress, fatigue, or hunger will influence us later.
How to Outsmart it:
Anticipate emotional roadblocks when making plans.
Build safeguards like healthy snacks for tough days or setting boundaries when energy is low.
Visualize potential challenges and pre-commit to better choices.
2. The Gambler’s Fallacy: Betting on Bad Odds
Ever felt like something is “due” to happen? That’s the gambler’s fallacy—the belief that past events influence future outcomes in a random sequence.
If a coin lands heads five times in a row, we instinctively think tails must be next. But randomness has no memory; each flip is still 50/50.
How to Outsmart it:
Remember that independent events are exactly that—independent.
Don’t make decisions based on perceived patterns in randomness.
3. The Hot Hand Fallacy: Riding a Wave of Luck
On the flip side, the hot hand fallacy makes us believe a streak of success means more wins are inevitable.
It’s why someone on a winning streak at the casino keeps doubling their bets or why a high-performing athlete might seem “unstoppable.”
How to Outsmart it:
Stay grounded and remember that streaks don’t change probabilities.
Focus on consistent effort, not fleeting success.
4. The IKEA Effect: Valuing What We Create
Ever notice how much you love something you made yourself, even if it’s a little wonky? Named after the Swedish furniture giant, the IKEA Effect explains why we overvalue things we’ve had a hand in creating.
It’s not just furniture—this bias can affect business, relationships, and creative projects. We see extra value in our work simply because it’s ours.
How to Outsmart it:
Seek feedback from others to gain an objective perspective.
Recognize when personal attachment clouds your judgment of quality.
5. Temporal Discounting: Choosing Now Over Later
Why does the pizza in front of us seem so much better than the long-term goal of losing weight? Why do we stay up late to watch the end of that Netflix show rather than going to bed early and feeling well-rested tomorrow?
That’s temporal discounting—our tendency to favor immediate rewards over future benefits.
How to Outsmart it:
Remind yourself of the bigger picture and future rewards.
Create visual cues to connect your present actions with future goals.
Delay gratification intentionally by setting small milestones.
6. The Decoy Effect: The Hidden Manipulator
Retailers are masters of the decoy effect, where a third option skews our preferences. Think of popcorn at the movies: $3 for small, $6 for medium, $7 for large. That $6 medium isn’t appealing on its own but makes the large look like a steal.
So many of our online decisions are influenced by this extra variable presented as a decoy option. It’s not there for us to choose but to influence what we do decide.
How to Outsmart it:
Evaluate each option independently.
Be aware of when you’re being “nudged” toward a choice.
7. Planning Fallacy: Underestimating Time and Effort
Ever planned a project thinking it would take two weeks, only to finish it a month later? That’s the planning fallacy—our tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take.
Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky first identified this bias, and it’s a common pitfall in everything from project management to fitness goals.
How to Outsmart it:
Add a 20–30% buffer to your time estimates.
Use past experiences as a benchmark to predict timelines more accurately.
8. Illusory Correlation: Seeing Patterns That Aren’t There
The illusory correlation makes us see connections where none exist. For example, believing a certain food causes headaches without concrete evidence.
How to Outsmart it:
Look for data to back up your assumptions.
Question cause-and-effect beliefs, especially if they’re based on anecdotes.
9. The Law of Small Numbers: Mistaking Small Samples for Trends
When your three friends swear by a new diet, it’s tempting to assume it’s a miracle solution. This bias, known as the law of small numbers, happens when we generalize from small sample sizes. What makes this particularly dangerous is that we perceive the finding to be proven even though the low sample size suggests that it is anything but.
How to Outsmart it:
Look for broader data or expert opinions before concluding.
Outsmart Your Biases
Cognitive biases aren’t just quirky tendencies—they’re mental shortcuts that shape our decisions in profound ways. By recognizing and addressing these biases, you can make smarter, more intentional choices.
The key is awareness. Start questioning your assumptions, reflect on your habits, and put strategies in place to guide your thinking.
Once you know how your mind works, you’re in the driver’s seat.
For more insights into how your mind works—and how to influence it—keep checking out Inner Propaganda. You can also subscribe to my YouTube Channel so you never miss an episode of the CHANGING MINDS PODCAST again. Let’s master the art of thinking smarter, together.
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The Brain Prompt
Set up a bias check system. For your next big decision, list out the potential cognitive biases that could be influencing you. Ask a friend or colleague to play the “devil’s advocate” role and challenge your thought process. By acknowledging your biases and actively questioning them, you can make better, more informed choices.
Subscribe to the Inner Propaganda newsletter for weekly insights on psychology, influence, and the art of persuasion: owenfitzpatrick.com/newsletter.
Cheers,
Owen.
